Forecasting and Modeling

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This focus area involves the development and implementation of tools to extend our capabilities to forecast change in marine and coastal environments and the ecological responses to changes that occur both naturally and due to human activities. As an essential tool for CMSP, ecological forecasts will use indicators of coastal ecosystem health, habitat condition and environmental sustainability to provide resource managers with a range of effective strategies for mitigating environmental concerns, restoring ecosystems, or ensuring sustainability of living resources.

Focus Area-specific Goals:
  • Providing NOAA-ECSC students with skills to analyze and model natural phenomena and create forecasts, simulations, or scenarios that can be used to support decision making tools relevant to NOAA’s mission.
  • Establishing mentoring opportunities for modeling and forecasting-related research collaborations with ECSC faculty, NOAA specialists/scientists and local/regional coastal managers.
  • Developing coursework and webinar opportunities that train ECSC students to learn modeling and forecasting techniques, and how to use them to evaluate outcomes related to coastal areas and NOAA mission-relevant sciences.
  • Encouraging and assisting ESCS students to present modeling-related research findings at NOAA or professional meetings, organize information and create manuscripts, and submit their written findings for publication in peer-reviewed journals.

Comparisons between observed (dashed line with open circles) and modeled (solid lines) benthic biomass in Lavaca and Matagorda Bay for the period of 1988 – 2005. Source: Kim and Montagna 2009

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